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Arbor homes blog

March 25, 2024

Impending Recession?

Since the housing market crash leading to the recession in 2009, the housing market has been steadily recovering and excelling leading to the most affordable housing that this country has ever seen to date. Although this is the case - for the last 6 years economists have predicted a "slow down" in the industry and are certain of another recession on the horizon.

NO NEED TO PANIC

Though during the last recession the housing market crashed - that does not ensure that this will happen again if there is another recession. Recession by definition means a decline in trade and industry - which typically is identified by two successive quarters with a decline in GDP.

Fortunately now people are spending more time in their homes and gaining more equity than before the market crashed in 2009. Before the down turn, homeowners were using their homes as ATMs. People were pulling equity out of their homes and using it for other items or activities leading to them losing all of that equity when the value of their homes went down. Since the down turn, homeowners have become much more cautious with the equity of their homes.

SMART EQUITY

In the first quarter of 2018, Americans paid $40.3 billion dollars in credit card debt. This was the second largest pay off ever in U.S. history meaning that people are now paying more of their bills instead of buying larger assets like a car. Home owners are pulling money our of their homes at this point to decrease their debt and increase their overall wealth. Prices are climbing because they were at such a low during the recession and homeowners are now staying in their homes for a longer period of time creating fear for many in regards to the future recession potential. Today we stand at a much more comfortable spot, where a recession does not always indicate a housing crisis. Ideally, if a recession does hit, then the housing market will just slightly decline instead of declining at the magnitude that it did in the previous recession.